**Today’s Steel Market Review**
The upward momentum in the steel market moderated today, with gains in spot rebar, hot-rolled coil, and futures prices all narrowing. As of today’s close, the benchmark Rebar 10 contract stood at 3,181 points, up 3 points from the previous trading day; the benchmark Hot-Rolled Coil 10 contract stood at 3,385 points, up 11 points; the benchmark Coke 05 contract stood at 1,835.5 points, down 4 points; the benchmark Coking Coal 05 contract stood at 1,257.5 points, down 8 points; and the benchmark Iron Ore 09 contract stood at 783.5 points, down 2.5 points. As of 16:00 on the 23rd, regarding finished steel products, the average spot price for rebar (according to Lange Steel) was 3,328 yuan, up 6 yuan from the previous trading day; the average price for hot-rolled coil was 3,372 yuan, up 12 yuan. Regarding raw materials, the price of imported PB fines at Jingtang Port was 780 yuan, unchanged from the previous trading day; the price of quasi-grade-one metallurgical coke in Tangshan was 1,500 yuan, unchanged; and the ex-factory price for steel billets from major mills in Qian’an, Tangshan, was 3,020 yuan, unchanged.
**Steel Market Analysis**
Overall, the steel market today remained stable with slight upward movement. However, as futures prices surged to a high point before retreating, the rebar market stabilized in many regions and ceased its upward climb. Hot-rolled coil performed slightly better than rebar, with prices in some markets still rising by 10 yuan. Other varieties—such as cold-rolled coil and medium-thick plates—played catch-up with price increases; notably, medium-thick plates saw gains generally ranging from 20 to 30 yuan. In terms of trading volume, activity for varieties like rebar and hot-rolled coil has cooled down; the market’s capacity to absorb inventory at high price levels has diminished, and overall shipment performance has been lackluster.
Following several days of price increases, the market has seen a corresponding uptick in trading volume, and inventory digestion has accelerated in certain local markets. According to Lange Steel’s survey data for this week, overall national steel production has rebounded on a month-on-month basis; inventory across all distribution channels has declined across the board; and overall apparent demand has surged significantly, though distinct divergences remain evident across different product categories. Data jointly released by Lange and Zhaogang.com indicates that the combined output of construction materials, hot-rolled coils, medium plates, and cold-rolled sheets increased by 97,600 tons month-on-month, signaling an overall upward trend in production. Specifically, the output of construction materials and medium plates rose month-on-month—with construction materials showing the most prominent increase—while the output of hot-rolled coils and cold-rolled sheets experienced a slight month-on-month decline, highlighting a clear structural divergence on the supply side. Regarding inventory, a clear overall trend of destocking is evident; total inventory fell by 797,000 tons month-on-month, with both mill inventories and social inventories undergoing significant simultaneous destocking. On a product-specific basis, construction materials led all categories in the magnitude of destocking; declines in both mill and social inventories drove a substantial reduction in total inventory for this sector. In contrast, social inventories of hot-rolled coils saw a slight accumulation, while medium plates bucked the trend with an accumulation in mill inventories alongside a reduction in social inventories; inventories for all other product categories declined month-on-month. On the demand side, overall apparent demand surged by 1.1111 million tons month-on-month, signaling a significant rebound in consumption. The construction materials sector demonstrated the most impressive performance across supply, demand, and destocking metrics, whereas the supply-demand dynamics for plate products remained relatively weaker, exhibiting divergent internal trends.
The recent strength observed in hot-rolled coils is primarily attributable to their previously undervalued status, coupled with export-related market logic that supports a price recovery. However, market participants should closely monitor changes in export profitability going forward; should the cost-effectiveness of exports lose its competitive edge, it would likely serve to curb the upward momentum of hot-rolled coil prices.
**Market Outlook**
Currently, the market’s upward momentum has begun to moderate; the “spike-and-retreat” pattern observed in futures trading—where prices surged before pulling back—has dampened the spot market’s impetus for further price hikes. Nevertheless, following a period of sustained gains, steel prices have effectively shifted to a higher price tier compared to early April, and the market now requires time to digest and consolidate these gains. In the absence of exceptionally strong market catalysts, a continued, uninterrupted upward push would heighten downside risks for the market in the near term. As the month draws to a close, the market may pivot away from the upward trajectory maintained over the past two weeks, shifting instead into a phase of range-bound, sideways fluctuation. This does not, however, signify an end to the bullish trend or an immediate reversal into a decline; rather, as market conditions evolve in the future, opportunities for further price appreciation are expected to re-emerge.
From a futures trading perspective, the “black commodities” complex—encompassing steelmaking raw materials and finished steel products—exhibited mixed performance. The benchmark contracts for coking coal, coke, and iron ore closed slightly lower within a narrow range, while rebar and hot-rolled coils closed slightly higher, also within a narrow range. Overall, prices across the board retreated from the highs reached during the night trading session, suggesting that the upward momentum is currently facing resistance and undergoing a rhythmic technical pullback. The benchmark Rebar 10 contract closed at 3,181, up 3 points. Open interest stood at 1.71 million lots, an increase of 46,000 lots. Volume traded totaled 780,000 lots, exceeding the previous day’s volume. The daily high of 3,203 encountered resistance, and the market closed in the late session below the 3,200 threshold; the current situation should be treated as a corrective consolidation around the 3,200 level. Downside support levels to watch are 3,167 and 3,142. Reference trading range: 3,142–3,192.
